- Black Friday 2026 by the Numbers: What Can We Expect?
- What Is Changing in Black Friday Shopping Behaviour?
- Which Shopping Categories Could See the Biggest Demand in 2026?
- How Can Audience Data Help Advertisers Prepare for Black Friday 2026?
- What Should Advertisers Prioritise This Black Friday?
- Final Thoughts: Black Friday 2026 Is About Understanding the Shopper
- FAQ
Black Friday is approaching, and 2026 is shaping up to be another record-breaking year for online shopping. However, behind the rising sales figures, consumer behaviour is changing. Shoppers are researching products earlier, comparing prices more carefully, and increasingly using AI tools to support their purchasing decisions.
For advertisers, agencies and media teams, these changes raise an important question: How can brands reach consumers who are genuinely interested in buying, rather than simply browsing for discounts?
The latest retail forecasts and shopping data offer some useful answers. From changing spending patterns to new product discovery habits, understanding what drives purchasing decisions will be essential for planning effective Black Friday campaigns in 2026.
Dominate Black Friday Sales with High-Intent Audience Data
Black Friday 2026 by the Numbers: What Can We Expect?
Black Friday continues to grow, with U.S. online sales expected to reach $12.9 billion in 2026, representing a 9.2% increase compared with the previous year.
Cyber Monday is projected to generate $15.1 billion in online spending, while the entire five-day Cyber Week period is expected to bring in $47.5 billion. Across November and December, total U.S. online holiday spending is forecast to reach $275.1 billion.
The wider retail outlook is also positive, with U.S. holiday retail sales expected to reach $1.013 trillion in November and December, up 4.2% year over year.
Black Friday and Holiday Shopping: 2025 vs. 2026
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Black Friday online sales | $11.8B | $12.9B |
| Cyber Monday online sales | $14.25B | $15.1B |
| Cyber Week online sales | $44.2B | $47.5B |
| Nov–Dec online holiday sales | $257.8B | $275.1B |
| Mobile share of online holiday spending | 56.4% | 57.4% |
Figures refer to U.S. online spending. 2025 actual results and 2026 forecasts.
These figures suggest that Black Friday remains an important shopping event, even as promotional activity spreads across a longer period. Interestingly, Black Friday itself is expected to grow faster than Cyber Monday, highlighting the continued importance of competitive deals and well-timed campaigns.
For brands, the challenge is not simply to advertise more during the busiest shopping days, but to understand which consumers are likely to respond to specific offers and when they are most receptive.
Reach your key audiences this Black Friday
What Is Changing in Black Friday Shopping Behaviour?
1. Consumers Are Shopping Earlier
Black Friday may take place on November 27 this year, but the shopping season starts long before that date. October promotions, early-access offers and extended discount periods have changed how consumers approach holiday purchases.
U.S. online spending is expected to reach $95.8 billion in October 2026, an 8% increase year over year. This reflects the growing importance of promotions outside the traditional November shopping window.
Consumers have more opportunities to compare products and spread their purchases over several weeks. Some may buy immediately when they find an attractive offer, while others continue researching until the final days of Cyber Week.
For advertisers, this creates opportunities to reach different audiences throughout the purchasing journey. Early campaigns can introduce products to consumers considering a purchase, while later activity can focus on shoppers showing stronger buying intent.
2. Shoppers Want Value, Not Just Discounts
Although holiday spending continues to grow, higher sales do not necessarily mean consumers are purchasing more products.
During Black Friday 2025, average selling prices increased by 7%, while order volumes declined by 1%, suggesting that part of the sales growth came from higher prices rather than an increase in the number of purchases.
At the same time, consumers remain interested in premium products when discounts make them more affordable. Competitive promotions encouraged shoppers to purchase higher-ticket items in categories such as electronics, appliances and sporting goods during the previous holiday season.
In 2026, price sensitivity is likely to remain an important factor. Discounts of up to 30% are expected in selected categories during Cyber Week, while shoppers continue to prioritise value and carefully consider their purchases.
This creates distinct opportunities for brands targeting budget-conscious consumers, premium buyers and people waiting for specific products to become more affordable. Rather than treating every discount shopper the same, advertisers can use audience interests and purchase-intent signals to deliver more relevant offers.
3. AI Is Becoming Part of the Shopping Journey
One of the most interesting developments for Black Friday 2026 is the growing role of artificial intelligence in product discovery.
During the 2025 holiday season, traffic from generative AI tools to U.S. retail websites increased by 693.4% compared with the previous year. Although AI referrals still represented a relatively small share of overall traffic, the growth illustrates how quickly shopping habits are evolving.
For 2026, AI-referred retail traffic is expected to increase by another 130% year over year during the holiday season.
Consumers are using AI-powered tools to compare products, explore alternatives, discover discounts and narrow down purchasing options. In a July 2026 survey, 77% of respondents who had used AI for online shopping said it made them feel more confident about their purchases.
This development matters for advertisers because the purchasing journey is becoming more complex. Consumers may discover a product through social media, compare alternatives with an AI assistant, visit several retailers and finally purchase when the right offer appears.
Understanding consumers’ broader interests and shopping intentions can help brands remain relevant throughout this process, even when the path to purchase involves multiple platforms.
4. Mobile Continues to Dominate Online Shopping
Mobile shopping is no longer simply an alternative to desktop purchasing. It has become the main way many consumers discover, research and buy products.
In 2025, smartphones accounted for 56.4% of U.S. online holiday spending. This share is expected to increase to 57.4% in 2026, with mobile purchases reaching an even higher proportion during key shopping moments.
Mobile devices also play an important role in flexible payment methods. Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) is expected to generate $21.3 billion in U.S. online holiday spending in 2026, with approximately 82% of that spending coming from mobile devices.
For advertisers, mobile-first behaviour makes it important to consider how audiences engage with ads across different devices. Consumers may discover an offer on a smartphone, research it elsewhere and return later to complete their purchase.
A coordinated approach to audience targeting can help brands maintain relevance across mobile, desktop and other digital environments.
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Which Shopping Categories Could See the Biggest Demand in 2026?
Electronics and fashion are expected to remain among the largest online shopping categories, but the latest data also suggests opportunities beyond traditional Black Friday purchases.
Several categories are expected to record strong year-over-year growth during the U.S. online holiday shopping season:
- Groceries: +10.3%, reaching $26.1 billion.
- Toys: +9.6%, reaching $9.6 billion.
- Cosmetics: +9.5%, reaching $9.2 billion.
- Furniture: +7.3%, reaching $33.4 billion.
- Electronics: +5.9%, reaching $63.3 billion.
- Apparel: +4.7%, reaching $51.3 billion.
These forecasts cover the November–December online holiday shopping season in the U.S., rather than Black Friday alone.
The growing interest in everyday essentials is particularly noteworthy. Shoppers are increasingly taking advantage of seasonal discounts to stock up on household products, personal care items and other practical purchases.
This means Black Friday is no longer relevant only to electronics retailers or fashion brands. Consumer demand spans a much wider range of categories, creating opportunities for advertisers in FMCG, beauty, home, family products and other sectors.
However, category growth alone does not reveal who is likely to buy. Brands still need to understand the interests, intentions and purchasing behaviours of the consumers behind these trends.
How Can Audience Data Help Advertisers Prepare for Black Friday 2026?
With more brands competing for attention throughout the shopping season, reaching large audiences is not necessarily the same as reaching relevant consumers.
Audience data helps advertisers identify groups of people based on their interests, online behaviour and purchase-intent signals, making it possible to plan campaigns around more specific consumer needs.
For example, a technology retailer may want to reach consumers researching premium electronics, while a beauty brand could focus on shoppers interested in skincare, cosmetics or luxury beauty products.
Rather than using one broad Black Friday audience, brands can consider several shopping groups with different motivations:
- Deal Seekers & Value Shoppers: Consumers interested in promotions, discounts and price comparisons across multiple shopping categories.
- Tech & Electronics Enthusiasts: People researching smartphones, gaming products, computers, audio equipment and smart-home devices.
- Fashion, Beauty & Luxury Shoppers: Audiences interested in clothing, cosmetics, premium accessories and beauty products.
- Home & Family Shoppers: Consumers exploring furniture, household appliances, children’s products and everyday essentials.
- Travel & Experience Seekers: People interested in discounted travel packages, accommodation, flights and leisure activities.
These audience profiles can support campaign planning, but they should be treated as targeting opportunities rather than evidence that every person within a segment is ready to make a purchase.
From Consumer Insight to Audience Activation
OnAudience helps advertisers, agencies and media teams translate consumer insights into actionable audience strategies.
With access to over 4,100 audience segments across more than 200 markets, advertisers can explore audiences based on interests, demographics, purchase intentions and online behaviour.
For more specific campaign needs, OnAudience AI Audiences enables media teams to create custom AI-modelled audiences from a natural-language campaign brief. This can be particularly useful when a campaign requires a combination of consumer interests, product categories or purchasing behaviours that is not covered by a standard audience segment.
Audience data can then support targeting across digital advertising environments, including desktop, mobile and CTV/OTT, depending on available activation options.
The objective is to help media teams identify relevant consumers and make better-informed decisions about where and how to allocate their campaign budgets.
Increase Black Friday sales with OnAudience audiences
What Should Advertisers Prioritise This Black Friday?
The latest shopping data points to several considerations for brands preparing their 2026 campaigns.
Start before Black Friday. Consumer interest develops throughout October and November, making early audience engagement relevant for brands selling products that require more research or consideration.
Look beyond broad demographic targeting. Shopping interests, product preferences and purchase-intent signals can provide additional context when identifying audiences likely to engage with specific promotions.
Adjust messaging to shopping motivations. A consumer looking for everyday essentials may respond to very different messaging than someone waiting for a discount on a premium smartphone or gaming console.
Consider the entire purchasing journey. AI-assisted discovery, mobile shopping and cross-device behaviour mean consumers may encounter several touchpoints before making a purchase.
Measure what drives results. Campaign reach and clicks provide useful information, but advertisers should also evaluate conversions, cost efficiency and incremental outcomes wherever measurement allows.
Understanding these differences can help advertisers design campaigns around consumer behaviour rather than relying exclusively on promotional calendars.
Final Thoughts: Black Friday 2026 Is About Understanding the Shopper
Black Friday 2026 is expected to deliver another year of growth, with billions of dollars in online sales and strong demand across multiple retail categories.
However, the most important changes are not limited to spending figures. Consumers are shopping earlier, using new tools to research products and becoming more selective about where they spend their money.
For advertisers, this creates both opportunities and challenges. Reaching consumers during a busy shopping period is relatively straightforward, but identifying the audiences most relevant to a particular offer requires a more considered approach.
The brands that understand who their customers are, what motivates them and when they are most likely to buy will be better positioned to turn Black Friday attention into meaningful campaign results.
Interested in exploring the Black Friday data?
Reach Your Black Friday Audiences with OnAudience
Planning your Black Friday 2026 campaigns? Explore OnAudience’s ready-to-activate audience segments or create custom AI-modelled audiences built from your campaign brief.
Explore AI Audiences | Contact OnAudience
FAQ
How much will consumers spend on Black Friday 2026?
U.S. online Black Friday sales are expected to reach $12.9 billion, representing 9.2% growth compared with 2025. These figures are forecasts rather than confirmed sales results.
When is Black Friday 2026?
Black Friday takes place on Friday, November 27, 2026. Cyber Monday follows on November 30. However, many retailers begin their promotions weeks before these dates.
What are the biggest Black Friday shopping trends in 2026?
Important trends include earlier shopping activity, increasing mobile purchases, growing use of AI tools for product discovery, demand for flexible payment options and continued consumer interest in value.
How can advertisers identify Black Friday audiences?
Advertisers can use audience data based on consumer interests, purchasing intentions and online behaviour to identify groups relevant to specific products and campaigns. These may include deal seekers, electronics enthusiasts, beauty shoppers and consumers researching household purchases.
Can advertisers create custom Black Friday audience segments?
Yes. OnAudience AI Audiences allows advertisers to create custom AI-modelled audience segments from campaign briefs, helping media teams develop more specific targeting strategies for their Black Friday campaigns.
Can advertisers create custom Black Friday audiences directly in Claude?
Yes! With the new OnAudience MCP integration for Claude, advertisers, agencies and media planners can discover ready-made audience segments and create custom AI-modelled audiences directly within Claude. Simply describe your Black Friday campaign brief in natural language, and OnAudience helps turn it into relevant audience segments, simplifying the process from campaign planning to audience activation.
